By Rhaydz B. Barcia, Sam Mediavilla, Mark Ivan Roblas and Al Jacinto
Saturday, June 17, 2006 (Manila Times)
The government at the local and national levels is looking at a worst-case scenario, with 1,565-meter-high Mount Bulusan spewing tons of ashes into the air. It is in fact considering Casiguran town some distance away as a relocation site for families who may be affected if the volcano would erupt as feared.
On Friday the Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (Phivolcs) raised the Bulusan alert level from 2 to 3, following detection of high sulfur dioxide emission.
At least 80,000 families from six municipalities in the shadow of Mount Bulusan stand to be affected if the volcano should unleash its full fury. At immediate risk are six barangays in Bulusan, 13 in Barcelona, 10 in Casiguran, 22 in Juban, 8 in Irosin and 3 in Gubat.
President Arroyo is visiting Juban and Bulusan towns Saturday to check the extent of work done to prepare for possible disaster. She expects to be briefed by officials of the National Disaster Coordinating Council, Office of the Civil Defense, as well as the provincial and local governments
The increased volcanic activity could mean, according to Noel Pura, executive director of PDCC-Sorsogon, that an eruption could occur anytime.
Eruption not likely soon
But Phivolcs Director Renato Solidum said although the volcano had been showing signs of restlessness a major eruption could still be far away. Compared to the past six explosions in the past, the volcanic activities recorded, including ash discharges, were weaker this time.
Nevertheless, he told Sorsogon residents on Thursday to maintain at least a four-kilometer distance from the crater.
Some 63 public schools and other government buildings have been identified as immediate evacuation centers. The affected residents will be ferried by 190 government and private vehicles, mostly trucks.
For long-term evacuation, Mayor Edwin Hamor of Casiguran offered the former National Boy Scouts Jamboree site in his town. Casiguran lies some 12 kilometers away, far enough from the volcano’s fury. Moreover, water and power facilities are available.
Enough food and medicines
Gov. Raul Lee said that the province would not need immediate help from the national government, saying it had enough food and medicine for residents that may be affected.
Ernesto Corpus, chief of the volcano monitoring team dispatched to the area, said the readout of the first harmonic tremor confirms magma buildup toward the crater. But the team could only make an educated guess.
Corpus said his team’s work is hampered by the loss of an earthquake-detecting instrument on top of a slope in Irosin. Installed last year, the instrument was stolen promptly afterward.
The team could only deduce the presence of magma from the sulfur dioxide emission, which reached 949 tons a day in the past 24 hours. The high emission level was preceded by a short tremor. The normal level of emission is 500 tons a day.
“But determining how fast the magma could travel toward the surface, using the harmonic tremor as basis, remains an educated guesswork,” Corpus added.
Kanlaon emissions
In Negros, Mount Kanlaon, one of the country’s active volcanoes, has been emitting minor steam clouds and ashes since Wednesday and Thursday. But Phivolcs saw no immediate sign of eruption. Such volcanic activities, it added, are normal in the Philippine setting.
Henry Peñarubia, Phivolcs research specialist, allayed fears that the activities of Bulusan and Kanlaon are related to the recent eruption of Mount Merapi in Indonesia. He also said the increased activities of the two volcanoes had no connection with the mild earthquake in Siocon, Zamboanga del Norte.
A shallow fault Friday morning generated an earthquake of magnitude 5 in Siocon, Zamboanga del Norte, and 4.5 in Zamboanga City.
The research specialist said earthquakes are a normal occurrence in this part of the world. The Philippines, he added, normally feels only five tremors a day, mostly in Surigao and the rest of the country’s eastern seaboard. Indonesia and Japan, on the other hand, experience more than 20 earthquakes a day.
Fairly strong quake
In December this year, a 5.7 magnitude temblor also jolted parts of Southern Philippines, including Zamboanga, Pagadian and Cotabato. The quake originated about 140 kilometers southwest of Sultan Kudarat.
In 1976 hundreds of people were killed when a tsunami, triggered by movement of plates in the Cotabato Trench, rolled over coastal towns in Mindanao.
The Philippines, with at least 22 active volcanoes, is part of the so-called ring of fire in the Pacific.
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